Transparent conductor sales on the way up

Consumption of transparent conductors by the photovoltaics industry is expected to reach $548 million by 2017, according to a new study by industry analyst firm NanoMarkets. The report, Transparent Conductors in Photovoltaics: Market Opportunities 2011, states that photovoltaics is so far the only application for transparent conductors that has made a wholesale shift away from ITO, thus creating a substantial opportunity for suppliers of other transparent conductive oxides.

Because of the cost sensitivity of PV, non-ITO transparent oxides have already achieved a victory over ITO in this sector and suppliers of transparent conducting oxides - mainly zinc oxide and tin oxide - can expect to ride the PV wave to reach US$268 million in sales by 2017, compared with just US$51 million.

Starting in 2013, it is expected that nanomaterials will begin to impact the PV transparent conductor market. NanoMarkets believes that such materials will be of particular interest to new entrants into the PV business, who will not have built a substantial sputtering infrastructure.

Such businesses can get immediate cost benefits from the R2R processes associated with nanomaterial deposition, both in terms of lower capital expenses and in terms of energy savings. In value terms, nanomaterials will account for 23% of the PV transparent conductor market by 2017.

Although many kinds of nanomaterials will find markets in this space, the company expects that nanosilver-containing films will be the first to take off in the PV space given the relative stability of the technology.

The high price of silver will not constrain the volume of these films because the silver itself makes up only a very small portion of their value.

This report analyses and quantifies the markets for transparent conductors in PV using CdTe, thin-film silicon, CIGS, organic PV and DSC absorber technologies. The transparent conducting materials covered comprise ITO, other transparent conductors, conducting polymers, nanosilver and composite films and carbon nanotube films.

The report also includes an eight-year forecast of transparent conductor markets for PV applications, broken out by type of conductor and type of PV. It also examines the strategies that ITO firms will employ as they put up a fight to retain a share for as long as they can and what the implications of those strategies will be for all concerned.