Cast-mono wafers may reach 2.4 GW

PV polysilicon and wafer prices fell about 50% in 2011. With demand for solar systems forecast to be down or flat in 2012, polysilicon and wafer prices are expected to remain under heavy pressure.

As a result, revenues for both industries are predicted to shrink - polysilicon by 35% and wafer by 47%.

As described in the NPD Solarbuzz Polysilicon and Wafer Supply Chain Quarterly, significant oversupply of both polysilicon and wafer production is causing less competitive manufacturers to temporarily idle or close factories and reduce use.

Polysilicon factory use is forecast to fall from 76% in 2011 to 66% in 2012. Wafer use is forecast to fall from 64% to 57%.

Cast-mono is emerging as an important strategy for wafer and vertically integrated module makers, particularly in China, to increase competiveness. The technology enables hybrid mono-/multicrystalline ingots to be grown in high-productivity conventional multicrystalline DS casting furnaces at lower costs than Cz-grown mono ingots.

Commercial production of cast-mono wafers and modules began in 2011. This year, cast-mono is predicted to account for 2.4 GW, or about 8%, of total PV wafer production. Based on survey results detailed in the report, cast-mono production is forecast to grow steadily and to account for more than 25% of all wafer production by 2016.